Lolo, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

122
FXUS65 KMSO 271906
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
106 PM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  The KMSO Radar (Missoula, MT local weather radar) will remain
   offline due to scheduled maintenance through the first week of
   August.

-  Thunderstorm chances persist each day, Monday through Friday.

-  There is a 30 to 40 percent probability of strong thunderstorm
   outflow gusts exceeding 40 mph today.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again move over
portions of the Northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. Much
of the same areas impacted yesterday will be under threat for
convection today. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over Lemhi
County shortly after 1:00 PM MDT, tracking northeast through the
Bitterroot and Sapphire Ranges and into west-central Montana. The
main threats will include gusty outflow winds, frequent lightning,
and brief heavy rainfall. There is a 30% to 40% probability of
strong thunderstorm outflow gusts exceeding 40 mph. Isolated
severe thunderstorms between 4:00 PM and 10:00 PM with gusts
reaching 60+ mph cannot be ruled out. Convection will linger over
western Montana until around midnight, with isolated showers
remaining in the forecast through early tomorrow morning.

The overall risk of flash flooding remains low over recent burn
scars and flood-prone areas, thanks to sufficient steering flow.
However, isolated runoff issues cannot be entirely ruled out.

From Monday through Friday, the overall weather pattern will
remain quite active, with daily showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast. Wednesday through Friday will likely be the period where
widespread thunderstorms with anomalously high moisture content
could bring more widespread runoff issues, including debris flows
from recent burn scars and in flood-prone basins. There is a 70%
to 90% probability of widespread wetting rains (>0.10") across the
entire region, with northwest Montana having the highest
probabilities.

Long-range ensemble forecast models show poor agreement regarding
the overall pattern after next weekend. They are about 50/50 on
whether the active pattern will persist or if a ridge of high
pressure will set up. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...Another round of showers and thunderstorms is likely
for portions of western Montana and Lemhi County, ID this
afternoon and evening. The best timing for KSMN will be from
27/1900Z to 28/0100Z. Convection will gradually move northeast,
impacting KHRF, KMSO, and KBTM between 27/2100Z and 28/0100Z.
Gusty outflow winds up to 40 knots and heavy downpours reducing
visibility are possible, with a low probability of small hail.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$